by Before this season, Sam Darnold’s strongest contribution to the NFL canon was “seeing ghosts.”
Darnold was one of several quarterbacks selected early in the first round to go out of the New York Jets. After leaving Florham Park, he alternated between backup and bridge starter roles in Carolina and San Francisco before moving to Minnesota. Now he leads one of the hottest teams in the NFL. As injuries and attrition continue to weigh on the Lions, the Vikings are making a late push for the NFC’s No. 1 seed — and potentially home-field advantage during the playoffs.
It’s easy to look at Minnesota’s success and point it in any direction other than Darnold. You can run through a list of Brian Flores’ crazy defense, Justin Jefferson, a solid offensive line and Kevin O’Connell’s offensive system before focusing on the quarterback who lights it all up. But the reality is that Darnold has played like a top-10 quarterback this season. However, despite his breakout year, it is unclear where he will play next season.
Darnold was brought to Minnesota to build a bridge to the next generation. The Vikings picked up the veteran on a one-year, $10 million deal before selecting JJ McCarthy 10th overall in the most recent draft. But McCarthy’s preseason injury gave Darnold a chance to make the team his own, and in 15 weeks he put in a historic performance. Darnold is just the third quarterback in NFL history to have 3,500 pass yards, 29 TD passes and a passer rating above 100 in his first 14 games with a team.
Dig beneath the bloopers and what Darnold promises could Werde was there in New York, Carolina and San Francisco: a strong-armed quarterback who could spread the ball all over the field. But someone could have imagined that Thea franchise-caliber quarterback who elevates everyone around him?
Given his environment, it’s easy to overlook Darnold’s individual development. He works with one of the best offensive minds in the game, a star-studded receiving corps, an exciting running game and a reliable tight end. Entering the season, Darnold was supported by the Vikings’ scheme and a number of the league’s top booked tackles. However, Darnold has come under fire in recent weeks, with the Vikings regularly suffering pressure rates in excess of 40%. But aside from two errors Monday night against the Bears, Darnold’s production has increased as his offensive line has faltered.
The Darnold of 2024 is no longer the same player he was with the Jets. He has evolved. Darnold’s accuracy has improved. He makes plays on the move. He hits shots from tight windows in a top game in the league. While he was once the league’s most panic-stricken quarterback, he has found a new calm with the Vikings. In New York, Darnold fended off pressure and spun as he was blitzed. These days, Darnold is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when the pocket gives way. This season, he is fifth in the league in plus accuracy when under pressure, a measure of how often he uncovers his target. That’s behind only CJ Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, according to Pro Football Focus.
Back when he was still seeing ghosts, defenses attacked Darnold by sending an extra player into the pass rush and blurring their coverage on the back end. The combination of extra heat with a shaky defensive rotation messed up the quarterback’s decision-making. During his unfortunate three seasons with the Jets, Darnold threw 39 interceptions, including 23 against the Lightning. He struggled to see the field and threw panicked throws into crowded areas.
The same “What is he thinking?” decisions occurred this season too. He has up to 11 interceptions and 18 turnover plays in 14 starts. But a lot of the ugliness has been removed from his game. Like every quarterback in the league, he handles pressure by releasing the ball in rhythm and showing a flair for spontaneous plays. And against the Lightning, Darnold has made money this year. When defenses send five or more pass rushers this season, Darnold has completed 73% of his passes, averaging 12.2 yards per attempt and 12 touchdowns with zero interceptions. This season, most of his turnovers came from erratic decision-making outside the pocket or trusting his receivers to field 50-50 balls.
The idea of Darnold being the one to miss an away game is also a thing of the past. He improves in close games. As you check off the traits of a franchise starter, he goes down the list.
What we’ve seen this season is not a quarterback finally reaching his potential, but a player who has redefined his game.
His growth makes Darnold the most intriguing free agent this offseason. Is the rest of the league buying his transformation from a dull, error-riddled backup into a legitimate starter? Is he Ryan Fitzpatrick or Geno Smith? We’ll find out soon.
Darnold’s success coupled with McCarthy’s injury has presented the Vikings with an intriguing dilemma: Will they re-sign Darnold to a super contract or start trading for McCarthy and let Darnold go?
If Darnold hits the open market, the benchmark for his next contract will likely be Baker Mayfield’s deal with the Bucs. Like Darnold, Mayfield was a former first-round pick who failed at his original spot before revitalizing his career elsewhere. In Tampa, Mayfield showed his talent as a starter on a one-year contract and received a three-year, $100 million contract from the Bucs. But Mayfield did not join an organization that had already chosen its heir to the throne.
If Mayfield’s contract Is Darnold’s starting point for negotiations: Can the Vikings afford to commit that much money to him with McCarthy already on the books? If not, how long will Darnold’s list of other applicants be?
Things are in the dark there. An insidious story for the upcoming offseason is that many quarterback-reliant teams have little room to add an established veteran or even risk a reclamation project. Most teams in the league either have a long-term starter or a young quarterback they believe in. Even a team like Carolina, which looked like a possible quarterback target midway through the season, has seen enough of Bryce Young this season to start next year with the former No. 1 overall pick as the team’s guaranteed starter.
Three teams with dire quarterback needs (the Saints, Browns and Jets) either have veterans on the roster or are stuck in salary cap hell. Even if the Jets can manipulate the cap to create enough cap space to make Darnold an offer, it’s unlikely he’ll want to return to the franchise that ran him out of town.
That leaves a small list of possible destinations: the Raiders, Giants and Titans. Maybe the Colts will be interested if they upset Anthony Richardson (again). Matthew Stafford could retire at the end of the season, creating a clean landing spot for Darnold with the Rams. But if Stafford returns and the Colts decide to trust the process, Darnold will only have three plausible suitors outside of Minnesota.
These three franchises will also look at the draft to find their quarterback of the future. Like the Vikings did last offseason, they will likely look to pair this draftee with a veteran on a cheap deal to get the rookie through his first season. Will Darnold be interested in putting himself in the same situation two seasons in a row? If he decides to leave Minnesota, it will certainly be to a place where he is the guaranteed starter. If not, why leave Minnesota at all? In that scenario, it would make more sense for Darnold to return, even if it means taking a discount. McCarthy will essentially still be a rookie next year, returning from a knee injury. Darnold could keep his starting role until the Vikings believe McCarthy is the better option.
That presents another possibility: What if Darnold was just that good in the future as long as he played in O’Connell’s system? Would the Vikings be willing to trade McCarthy a year later without seeing him play a snap if Darnold continues to play at a top-10 level? Or would they try to emulate the Packers model and think of McCarthy as Jordan Love to Darnold’s (don’t laugh) Aaron Rodgers?
The answers to these questions will come in the offseason. But Darnold has proven he is an entry-level quarterback who can thrive in the right ecosystem. He has brought a new edge to his game, which should encourage another franchise to take his game to other locations.
Whether he transfers or not may depend on how the Vikings finish the season. If Darnold misses a playoff game, the Vikings could decide it’s time for McCarthy. But there’s a real chance that Darnold and the Vikings will win the Lombardi in February. Whether they win a championship or fall just short will be one of the most intriguing quarterback dilemmas in recent league history.
