by The Oklahoma City Thunder have emerged as the betting favorites in the Western Conference, but their NBA Cup loss to the Milwaukee Bucks exposed key flaws.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has firmly established himself as an MVP candidate, but whether he has a true co-star remains unclear. Jalen Williams performed brilliantly last season but fell short in critical moments, averaging 17 points on just 50.8% shooting in Oklahoma City’s second-round loss to the Dallas Mavericks.
Williams returned as a higher-volume 3-point shooter this season but struggled in the NBA Cup elimination games:
-
18 points on 21 shots against Dallas
-
20 points on 20 shots against Houston
-
18 points on 20 shots against Milwaukee
In total, that’s 18.7 points per game with a shooting rate of 44%. Williams struggled to get all the way to the basket in the championship game against the likes of AJ Green and Gary Trent and was largely ineffective as any help faded into the background. It’s just one game, but it was a repeat of his struggles against the Mavericks as he was unable to consistently create space for quality looks.
Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t at his best either, scoring 21 points on 24 shots. Andre Jackson has silenced him multiple times. But we’ve seen SGA dominate on the biggest stage, something Williams has yet to do. And that’s completely fair: SGA is already 26, while Williams is only 23 in just his third season. The fact that Williams is already so good — 21/6/5 with versatile defense — gives him obvious All-Star potential.
But can Williams develop into a more consistent star talent by this spring? Perhaps. Chet Holmgren should be back at some point and also provide more perimeter creation, so the Thunder may have enough committee to have the better hand. But as the defense tightens up, it becomes clear that this team lacks consistent secondary shot production. The question arises:
Is this Thunder group built to win a title or is it still a work in progress?
Some Thunder fans will argue that the team just had a terrible shooting night against the Bucks. Just. The Thunder shot 15.6% from 3 (5 of 32), their worst number of the season. But they rank 19th in 3-point percentage on the season, which isn’t surprising since the roster is filled with good shooters but few truly great shooters. And the Bucks entered the contest with a game plan that allowed those players to get shots instead of letting SGA or Williams enter the game at will.
Milwaukee had Giannis Antetokounmpo move off Lu Dort to help in the paint, and he blatantly ignored Alex Caruso when defending him. Dort has developed into a stunning stand-still shooter, but Caruso has been tremendously mixed in his low-volume career. He has made just 25.9% of three-pointers this season. As great as he is defensively, it appears he will be the player who gets the Josh Giddey treatment this offseason. Should the Thunder consider a trade?
Sam Presti has an unparalleled pool of draft picks, giving him the flexibility to trade for almost any player in the league except the untouchables. But will he do something? Last season, Presti opted for patience and targeted Gordon Hayward, a low-cost veteran who was so banged up that he retired after the season. But this was OKC’s first real attempt at making the playoffs, so it made sense to push through it and find out what the team really needed.
This embedded content is not available in your region.
The Thunder figured out they needed size. So they went out and got Isaiah Hartenstein. And someone better than Giddey was needed, so they replaced him with Caruso. This season, it’s looking pretty obvious that the Thunder need more shots. A little more size would also be nice. And perhaps a replacement spark plug scratch protector could help provide the support SGA needs.
I don’t think Presti needs to change some of his decisions and consolidate existing players in the squad.
Seven players I would like to address:
• Herb Jones, Pelicans: New Orleans is reportedly unwilling to trade Herb. But untouchable? I doubt it. The Thunder have enough picks to make anyone change their mind, and Herb is the type of all-world defender who would give them size to complement their more perimeter-oriented stoppers.
• Pascal Siakam, Pacers: Siakam would provide the mastery, the power and the size of the defense. The Pacers only traded for him less than a year ago, but considering the franchise’s regression, they might be more willing to acquire multiple role players and a bunch of draft picks.
• John Collins, Jazz: Collins is averaging 18 points and having a near 50-40-90 season, shooting 53.4% from the field, 43.6% from three and 88.8% from the line. Collins would be insurance if Holmgren doesn’t come back healthy, and they could play together even if he comes back better than ever.
• Collin Sexton, Jazz: Sexton isn’t the biggest name by any means, but he provides a spark every time the ball is in his hands and he’s a good shooter at catches. At 25 years old, he would also fit OKC’s timeline.
• Larry Nance, Hawks: Nance is an all-around forward/big who can defend on the perimeter, provide some rim protection, shoot, facilitate and finish lobs. He’s not great in any category, which is why he’s a career rotation player. But OKC could use him in many different roles depending on the series.
• Cam Johnson, Nets: At 6-foot-3, Johnson is a knockdown mover who is making 43.3% of his three-point shots this season. He’s not a lockdown defender, but he would at least provide the size needed.
• Cam Thomas, Nets: Some goal support behind SGA would be a nice addition, just in case Williams doesn’t end up being the man in the playoffs. Thomas hasn’t done it all in the postseason, but he’s a true all-rounder who excels when he gets the opportunity.
The Thunder’s future is undeniably bright, but the championship window is fragile. A single injury, unexpected chemistry issues, or missteps in roster construction can solve the problem quicker than expected. Then the Thunder team of the 2010s with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden is for you. The trio reached a final and the basketball world thought it was just the beginning of their reign. But they never made it back. And they finally broke up.
Now this iteration of the Thunder faces a familiar dilemma: whether to rely on patience or urgency. Presti’s next move could shape a generation. If done right, there could be a golden age in Oklahoma City. But if you wait too long, this team risks becoming another “what if” in the annals of NBA history.
