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Who doesn’t love a good surprise?
In 2024, MMA has seen its fair share of underdogs defying the odds in the UFC, PFL and beyond. While everyone has an opinion about who should win and who should lose, the oddsmakers (and the reaction of the betting public) largely have the final say on what history reflects.
This year, MMA Junkie compiled the ten biggest betting surprises of 2024 with the help of MMA database Tapology. Eligible fights were those recognized by multiple major online sportsbooks and recorded by Tapology before the end of the betting line.
Eligible promotions include UFC, PFL, Bellator, KSW, DWCS, Road to UFC and ONE Championship.
Check out the 10 biggest surprises in MMA betting in 2024 below. Only major MMA promotions were included in the balance sheet.
10. Danylo Voeivodkin (+420) def. Bailey Schoenfelder (-660) | DWCS 73
Result: Danylo Voievodkin def. Bailey Schoenfelder via submission (rear-naked choke) – Round 1, 1:13
Danylo Voievodkin showed that confidence is a powerful tool when he secured a UFC contract in 73 seconds as a heavy underdog. The Ukrainian heavyweight quickly clubbed and tagged in the previously unbeaten Bailey Schoenfelder, much to the approval of caged Dana White.
9. Yuneisy Duben (+450) def. Shannon Clark (-700) | DWCS 70
Result: Yuneisy Duben def. Shannon Clark by knockout (punch) – Round 1, 1:13
Yuneisy Duben is ranked No. 9 on the 2024 betting upsets list, but perhaps even higher on the list of “holy shit” moments. Not only did she defeat an LFA champion in Shannon Clark, but she also scored one of the most shocking and devastating knockouts in Dana White’s Contender Series history.
8. Ovince Saint Preux (+500) def. Kennedy Nzechukwu (-700) | UFC Fight Night 239
Result: Ovince Saint Preux def. Kennedy Nzechukwu by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Ovince Saint Preux vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu surprised a lot of people in many ways. Not only did heavy favorite Saint Preux win, the fight was an absolute blast – perhaps one of the most underrated of the year.
7. Reug Reug (+500) def. Anatoly Malakhin (-700) | ONE 169
Since his appearance on the international martial arts scene, Rueg Reug has caused a stir. But he showed he is much more than just a physical specimen when he became ONE champion, albeit a controversial one, with a five-round decision victory over Anatoly Malykhin.
Result: Reug Reug def. Anatoly Malykhin by split decision
6. Claudio Pacella (+520) def. Mark Ewen (-900) | 2024 PFL Europe 2
Result: Claudio Pacella def. Mark Ewen by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
It’s been a big year for Italy when it comes to MMA surprises. Claudio Pacella proved the so-called experts wrong when he became the first man to defeat Scot Mark Ewen by unanimous decision.
5. Reece McLaren (+525) def. Jarred Brooks (-1000) | ONE Fight Night 26
Result: Reece McLaren def. Jarred Brooks via split decision
The fifth biggest MMA upset of 2024 occurred just days into the calendar year when ONE veteran Reece McLaren defeated former UFC fighter Jarred Brooks via a split decision. McLaren has now won four of its last five battles and is heading into 2025 full of energy.
4. Aiemann Zahabi (+575) def. Javid Basharat (-900) | UFC fight 238
Result: Aiemann Zahabi def. Javid Basharat by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Call him a late bloomer, but it doesn’t matter. Aiemann Zahabi became an emerging contender in 2024. The first leg of a two-win calendar year for the Canadian took place at the UFC Apex. Zahabi extended his winning streak to four in March against Javid Basharat and to five in November against Pedro Munhoz.
3. Gabriella Fernandes (+625) def. Wang Cong (-950) | UFC Fight Night 248
Result: Gabriella Fernandes def. Wang Cong via submission (rear-naked choke) – Round 2, 3:49
The biggest UFC surprise of 2024 comes in at No. 3 overall. All the hype was due to Wang Cong attending the promotion’s return to Macau in November. Cong had the looks and the enthusiasm, but she was unable to beat Gabriella Fernandes that day. Fernandes refused to take on the B-side role, instead becoming a spoilsport and submitting Cong in Round 2.
2. Daniele Miceli (+650) def. Ibrahima Mane (-1200) | 2024 PFL Europe Playoffs
Result: Daniele Miceli def. Ibrahima Mane via TKO (ground-and-pound) – Round 1, 1:26
Italian Daniel Miceli caused the second biggest upset of 2024 by defeating France’s Ibrahima Mane in Paris in 86 seconds. The win propelled Miceli into the welterweight final of PFL Europe 2024, where he was submitted in round 1 by Albanian Florim Zendeli.
1. Dimitre Ivy (+850) def. Lucas Brennan (-1600) | 2024 PFL 1
Result: Dimitre Ivy defeated. Lucas Brennan by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
The biggest betting surprise in major promotion MMA came in the second PFL fight of the season. In the prelims of PFL 1 2024, Dimitre Ivy turned heads when he defeated highly touted Bellator import Lucas Brennan by unanimous decision. The fight was Brennan’s last under the PFL/Bellator umbrella.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Defying the Odds: The 10 Biggest Surprises in MMA Betting in 2024
