by At $300 million, the Phillies may already have exhausted their spending this offseason. The original appearance appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
The Phillies’ offseason doesn’t appear to be over yet, but their two biggest moves may have already happened with the signing of outfielder Max Kepler and backup Jordan Romano to one-year deals.
Speaking to reporters Friday night after the Kepler contract became official, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said all but as far as big free agent deals go.
“I would be surprised if we made any impactful free-agent signings from an offensive standpoint,” he said.
The Phillies have spent heavily in recent offseasons, signing Bryce Harper and Trea Turner to contracts worth $300 million or more, adding Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in the same offseason, and adding Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sanchez, among others extended. Money hasn’t been a major stumbling block and the salary situation hasn’t stopped the Phillies from improving every year since 2020, but now that’s a different story.
The Phillies’ payroll is now so high that they essentially pay double for every player they sign. Kepler’s one-year, $10 million contract actually costs them $19.25 million. This is because the Phils have already exceeded the third luxury tax threshold of $281 million, and you pay a 92.5% penalty for every dollar of overages.
“Anyone we sign is a big penalty at this point,” Dombrowski said. “You are aware of that.”
What makes the situation worse is that after signing Kepler, the Phillies are at about $299 million, just $2 million below the fourth luxury tax threshold of $301 million. The penalty for these violations is even harsher at 110%.
So now if the Phillies basically wanted to sign a $20 million player, it would cost $41.65 million.
“Well, I don’t want to say it’s a tight payroll in the sense that from an ownership perspective, I don’t think I’ve ever approached John (Middleton) about anything and he said, ‘No, don’t do anything.’ said Dombrowski. “But you’re still trying to keep track, and I don’t know what the exact payroll is, but we’re at over $300 million on the threshold.”
Kepler will play left field and the Phillies will keep Nick Castellanos in right field. You’ll try to play Kepler every day, but he’s never been a consistent hitter against lefties. It will be difficult to play him or Brandon Marsh every day, and it is unwise to play them both against same-handed pitchers. But an inexpensive, everyday outfielder doesn’t fall into their lap. From now on, Kepler and Marsh’s right-handed platoon partners would be Johan Rojas and Weston Wilson.
If that’s the outfield mix, the Phillies will go into 2025 hoping that a lot of things go well and that they need internal improvement from every hitter not named Harper or Schwarber.
“I think we’re just as good,” Dombrowski said when asked if he thinks this squad is better than it was in 2024. “I mean, we were pretty good at the end of the season last year. … I think we have a really good ball club.
What’s left?
The Phillies would like to add more pitching, especially a starter who can move to the bullpen if needed. Pretty much the 2025 version of Spencer Turnbull.
“Someone who can help us from the start. That would be our main concern,” Dombrowski said. “From a position player perspective, you never know what will happen, but if we were to go into spring training with the club we have now, I would feel very comfortable in that regard.”
