by Each week throughout the 2024-25 NBA season, we’ll be taking a deeper look at some of the league’s biggest storylines to find out whether future trends are based more on fact or fiction.
Fact or fiction: There is something seriously wrong with the NBA
I thought the discussion about “what’s going on with the NBA” was largely driven by social media, where people who supposedly like basketball spent the first part of this season looking for answers about the decline in television ratings, but the discussion hit the mainstream this week. Commissioner Adam Silver addressed concerns in Las Vegas, where NBA Cup participants were also questioned about the state of the league as “Inside the NBA” hosts Charles Barkley and Shaquille O’Neal floated theories.
“It’s frustrating for me because now it’s just a 3-point shooting contest and a free throw contest, and.” I don’t like itBarkley, arguably the NBA’s most influential commentator, said on The Dan Patrick Show. “You can get angry, but I don’t want to watch a 3-point shooting contest every night.” That’s no fun.
“It’s driving me crazy” O’Neal added on his own podcast.
The increase in 3-point attempts is probably the most popular position among armchair analysts. Teams are attempting nearly 40 per game – compared to 35 last season, 20 in 2013-14 and 10 in 1993-94.
Even LeBron James — perhaps the only person in the game whose voice carries more weight than Barkley’s — parlayed his grievances into a response about the latest All-Star Game format, telling reporters: “There’s a lot in our game Shit.” 3s get shot. So it’s a bigger conversation than just the All-Star Game.
I may be in the minority, but I don’t understand the premise. Shooting is an important part of the game, perhaps the most important, and increased difficulty—with a success rate that makes the NBA of the 1980s and early 1990s seem clumsy—shouldn’t alone explain why people can be turned out.
Was it better when teams in 1996-97, as far as the NBA database goes, hit 40.1% on 31.3 mid-range jump shots per game? This value has dropped to 9.8 per game (with a slightly higher success rate). All of those long 2-point shots were moved beyond the arc, where players make 35.9% of them. Percentages indicate the difference in eras by one more missed field goal per game (and more points).
But that’s not even the case. The pace has picked up since the height of the Michael Jordan era, when no one was wondering what was wrong with the NBA. The number of field goal attempts is increasing. Field goal percentages have increased. The points have increased. Everything except moderately difficult jumps is required, including dunks. According to RunRepeat.com, the number of dunks increased 35% over a 20-year period from the turn of the century to today.
Boston Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla, whose reigning champions attempt more 3s than any other team ever, asked us this week: “Why is scoring a problem in basketball as opposed to other sports?”
If the league’s skill level is higher than ever – and I don’t think there’s any debate about that – and the offense is at an all-time high, then why aren’t we talking about it? Right with the NBA?
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TV ratings, that’s why. We do not discuss any other metric in terms of a sport’s popularity. And we don’t even understand that. According to Sports Media Watch, NBA viewership has actually outpaced the decline in overall TV ratings. Even if we assume that this viewership problem is not actually a linear TV problem, basketball is being consumed more than ever. No other league has a larger social media following.
“If you look at other data points, for example as it relates to our business, we just came off the last two years with the highest attendance in the history of this league,” Silver said in his media release ahead of Tuesday’s NBA Cup championship game. “We are at a point where our social media audience is the highest of any league and continues to grow exponentially, so there is no shortage of interest in this game.”
Each series of games produces countless highlights, quotes and storylines – all the drama we enjoy about the sport – and is easily packaged into clips that are consumed by millions of people on social media. According to the NBA, the league has generated 10 billion The number of video views on his social channels this season is record-breaking. Viewership there has increased by 90% compared to five years ago. Registrations for League Pass are at a record level with an increase of 8%.
According to Nielsen, NBA cable TV ratings fell 13% across all providers. But consider this: A Nov. 29 game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers drew 1.14 million viewers on ESPN, while the game recap on Instagram generated another 5.2 million views. The NBA has 182.4 million followers across Instagram, X, TikTok and YouTube. The NFL, MLB and NHL have 153.4 million followers combined.
Aren’t you convinced that this challenges the idea that the NBA is losing its audience? Well, it convinced the league’s broadcast partners, who ponied up $77 billion for the rights to broadcast games in the 2035-36 season, three times the NBA’s last media deal. Everything but the TV ratings tells us the league is thriving.
So why are we so concerned about TV ratings when they barely matter to the people who make decisions based on them, and won’t for another decade, when Stephen Curry turns 48?
Because we have it Thoughtsthat is the reason and we must share it. There aren’t enough American-born superstars, and the ones that remain are being force-fed to us as we get older. Empowering players. Load management. Go through the list and you won’t find a real basketball problem other than “too many 3s.”
If you want to go back in time to 20 years ago when results were in the 70s and 80s, or 40 years ago when the paint was full of…everyone, I won’t join you. I saw it. It was cool in its own way. This also applies to basketball today. It’s actually better. If you don’t like the highest level of skill we’ve ever seen that maximizes the meaning of the game – scoring – then maybe you just don’t like basketball.
And that’s okay. But those of us who do are tired of hearing the reasons why we don’t. All the negativity does is create a loop about what’s wrong with the NBA when the problem it’s addressing isn’t even a problem and won’t exist in the president’s next three terms. For what purpose? Who are we trying to convince that basketball is cool? And why? If anything, a discussion about what’s right with the NBA will bring more viewers to an already widely-watched product full of fascinating narratives.
As refreshing as it was for Kevin Durant to emphasize reality vs. perception on this issue, he too fueled a negative news cycle by telling reporters this week: “I hate [the new All-Star Game format]. I absolutely hate it.“
For the most part, this is a separate conversation. The league has implemented another new All-Star Game format because players stopped trying in the exhibition. They were too busy complaining about it. But the end result is the same: the participants in the game undermine the product they are selling. If we keep telling everyone that there’s something wrong with the NBA, they’ll believe it even if it’s untrue.
The Celtics defend the championship. The Lakers are led by James, who at the age of 40 is doing things that no one thought possible. Nikola Jokić could have the best season ever. Giannis Antetokounmpo is aiming for a third MVP. The pool of candidates for the award is larger than ever before. Anthony Edwards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a cast of young characters attempt to take the league’s torch from the establishment’s superstars. A 7-foot-5 unicorn develops behind them. Cooper Flagg is coming.
There’s a lot to love about the NBA.
But you don’t hear that from the people who supposedly like the sport the most. That this discussion has reached the level of passion it has – leading sports debate shows and populating trending topics – strangely reinforces the idea that the NBA is as popular as ever. It’s OK to believe that basketball is good and fun, and you don’t need TV ratings – the very thing that defines the league – to remember that.
Purpose: Fiction. There is nothing seriously wrong with the NBA.
